Slowing Growth but no Recession - Cyclical Market Outlook...

Growing, But Slowing By Joachim Fels and Andrew Balls Major economies continue to expand; however, tighter financial conditions and increased political and economic uncertainties will give way to a synchronized deceleration of growth in 2019. While we do not expect a U.S. recession in the next year, excessive rate hikes or major policy mistakes remain key swing factors. Our outlook and the investment implications below are designed to help investors be in a position of strength when the economy slows:

• Maintain flexibility to respond to both positive and negative shocks

• Generate income across a broad range of sources

• Shift toward greater defense by upgrading portfolio quality and emphasizing liquidity